Three consecutive runners-up finishes have defined Mikel Arteta’s recent tenure at Arsenal, a painful trilogy that the club’s fanbase would sooner delete like unwanted tabs on a browser. The 2025-26 season, however, looks and feels fundamentally different from those near-misses, and the numbers support that view.
With nine league games remaining, Arsenal sit five points clear of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table and hold an 82% title probability according to Opta’s supercomputer. That level of statistical confidence is rare in a division known for humiliating early frontrunners, but the Gunners have built their advantage through consistent quality rather than fortunate timing.
The most significant change from last season is the firepower at the top of the pitch. Viktor Gyökeres has scored 15 goals across all competitions and is finally delivering on the promise that justified his £63.5m price tag after a slow start to life in north London. Arteta was enthusiastic about what the Swedish striker contributes beyond goals. “Viktor, I mean, the work that he does for us, he brings a different dimension to the front line. He opens up so much spaces.”
The arrival of Eberechi Eze from Crystal Palace has also been one of the summer’s most visible successes. He has added both creativity and clinical finishing that the squad clearly lacked in previous campaigns. His hat-trick in the 4-1 demolition of Tottenham, a match that also included a Gyökeres brace, stands as the defining result of the title race so far. The victory delivered Arsenal’s biggest away derby win since 1978. Even casual fans who prefer playing slots online to watching football are likely to recognise that scoreline.
That February win over Spurs prompted Arteta’s most openly confident public statement of the season so far, and the Spaniard struggled to contain his emotion. “This chapter we wanted to write it. We have managed today.” When read between the lines, the remark sounded less like a routine post-match comment and more like a declaration that this group of players now believes the title is within their grasp.
The depth of the squad assembled by Arteta also separates this Arsenal side from the three previous title challenges. Martin Zubimendi and Mikel Merino operate in midfield alongside Declan Rice, giving the team a firm grip on matches. Martin Odegaard has played 16 through balls in the Premier League while contributing just one goal, which highlights his role as the team’s primary creator rather than a traditional scorer.
Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard lead the assist charts with five each. Four different outfield players have reached that total in the league. This spread of creative output makes Arsenal far harder to neutralise through man-marking. The old criticism that Arteta’s teams are predictable and rely too heavily on the same delivery routes is becoming increasingly difficult to defend.
The season has not been completely smooth, and those difficult moments still matter when a title race could be decided by goal difference or a single dropped point. A 2-2 draw at Wolves in mid-February briefly reopened the door for Manchester City before back-to-back London derby wins against Tottenham and Chelsea pushed it shut again. “I am really happy and really proud about the way we approached the team,” Arteta said after the Spurs victory. Even so, the margin between confidence and crisis felt narrow enough to make the relief obvious.
Arsenal have also progressed in the Champions League. They advanced through the round of 16 after finishing first in the league phase with eight wins from eight. It is a remarkable record that demonstrates their consistency across competitions. Their next European challenge is against Bayer Leverkusen, a club that carries uncomfortable memories for supporters. As a result, March and April present a period filled with genuine historical opportunity.
The club is also marking its 100th consecutive season in the English top flight, which adds symbolic weight to the campaign. It would feel particularly fitting if that milestone coincided with Arsenal’s first league title since the Invincibles era in 2003-04. The only real question remaining in the title race is whether the final nine fixtures can sustain the belief that has steadily grown within this squad.
